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Alliance Bernstein: Global Macro Outlook January 2019

January 29, 2019

KEY FORECAST TRENDS

  • When 2018 began, the global economy was in a cyclical sweet spot. But gathering headwinds—including those caused by debt, demographic trends and populism—changed that, leading to slower growth and poor risk-asset returns.
  • Investors who expected last year to be the one when conditions returned to normal were disappointed. The definition of what’s “normal” needs a reset.
  • We expect global growth to continue to slow in 2019—a normalization, if you will, back towards growth rates more consistent with a soft secular backdrop.
  • To be sure, this doesn’t add up to recession. But softer growth and reduced liquidity do increase vulnerability. If any one of several key risks becomes reality, it could easily push us toward a worst-case outcome.
  • If that happens, investors will rightly question what’s left in the monetary policy toolbox. We fear the answer is likely to be “not much.”

 

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RISK: There are risks involved with investing, including loss of principal. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risks as well. Diversification may not protect against market risk. There is no assurance the goals of the strategies discussed will be met. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from difference in generally accepted accounting in principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. These and other risks are described more fully in the fund’s prospectus. CREDIT RISK: The issuer of a fixed income security may not be able to make interest and principal payments when due. The lower the credit rating of a security, the greater the risk of default on its obligation.

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. This and other information is contained in the Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus, which may be obtained online or by calling 1-888-507-2798.

Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.