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John Hancock: Weekly Market Recap Week Ended September 12

September 16, 2025

Fed cut ahead?

Bond market trading continued to support expectations of an interest rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to end on Wednesday, September 17. As of Friday’s market close, prices in rate futures markets implied a 96.4% probability that the Fed would cut by a quarter point, with a 3.6% prospect of a half-point cut, according to CME FedWatch. For more details on the outlook, explore the latest thinking from our co-chief investment strategists here.

 

Labor market cracks

Tuesday’s annual revision by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics concluded that the U.S. economy generated 911,000 fewer jobs from March 2024 to March 2025 than initial estimates reflected. A separate report showed that 263,000 workers submitted unemployment benefit claims in the latest weekly tally—the highest level in nearly four years.

 

Creeping inflation

Thursday’s Consumer Price Index reading showed that U.S. inflation rose at a 2.9% annual rate in August, up from 2.7% the previous month. The month-to-month increase of 0.4% was slightly higher than economists’ consensus expectations, and core inflation excluding food and energy costs climbed to a 3.1% annual rate.

 

Yield decline

The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell for the fourth week in a row, and on Thursday it briefly sank below the 4.00% threshold for the first time in more than five months. On Friday, the 10-year yield closed around 4.06%, down sharply from a recent high of 4.49% in mid-July.

 

SOURCE: https://www.jhinvestments.com/weekly-market-recap#market-moving-news

 

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