John Hancock: Weekly Market Recap Week Ended November 14

Is a Fed Rate Cut Still on the Table?

Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December cooled noticeably last week. By Friday afternoon, pricing in the futures market pointed to roughly a 46% chance of a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, based on CME FedWatch data. That’s a sharp drop from the nearly 70% probability priced in just a week earlier, reflecting growing uncertainty about the central bank’s next move.

Economic Data Bottleneck

The brief but disruptive 43-day U.S. government shutdown ended midweek, but its impact on economic reporting is still unfolding. A significant backlog of delayed data now awaits release, and several agencies have yet to confirm when key reports will be published—or whether some may be omitted entirely. Under the latest revised schedule, the September employment report is expected on Thursday, November 20, while release dates for other missed reports remained undetermined as of Friday.

Strong Earnings Season

The third-quarter earnings season is nearing completion, and corporate results have surpassed expectations. As of Friday, companies in the S&P 500 were on track for earnings growth of about 13.1%, far exceeding the roughly 8% growth projected at the start of the reporting season, according to FactSet. The widespread outperformance has helped support equity markets despite uncertainty on the policy front.

Bond Yields Edge Higher

Shifting expectations around the Fed’s December decision pushed government bond prices downward, sending yields higher across the Treasury curve. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.15%, up from around 4.09% the previous week. Yields on both the 2-year and 30-year Treasuries also moved higher as investors reassessed the likelihood of near-term monetary easing.

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