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John Hancock: Weekly Market Recap Week Ended December 12

December 16, 2025

Fed’s contested cut

For its third meeting in a row, the U.S. Federal Reserve fulfilled market expectations by cutting its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point. Nine of the Fed’s voting members supported a cut, two others wanted rates to stay unchanged, and a third member voted for a deeper half-point reduction, adding to the uncertainty about how many cuts could be ahead in 2026.

 

2026 rate outlook

After three rate cuts in 2025, bond market trading high investor uncertainty about prospects for further cuts. As of Friday afternoon, prices in rate futures markets implied a roughly 70% probability that the Fed would implement at least two quarter-point cuts over the course of 2026, according to CME FedWatch. The probability of just a single cut was 23%, with a 7% probability for no cut.

 

Market rotation

Weekly performance was sharply divided, with many of the technology-oriented stocks that have driven 2025’s gains weighing on the broader market. More cyclical, value-oriented stocks climbed, and a large-cap value equity style benchmark finished 0.6% higher for the week while its growth counterpart was down 1.5%.

 

Silver lining

Although 2025’s rise in gold prices has gained more attention, the price of silver has seen far bigger gains. Spot silver prices on Friday briefly climbed as high as $65 per ounce, a record level. At Friday afternoon’s price of around $62, silver was up 115% year to date.

 

Read More: https://www.jhinvestments.com/weekly-market-recap#market-moving-news

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