John Hancock: Weekly Market Recap Week Ended December 26

Metals shine again

Precious metals prices pushed their record levels higher, with silver surpassing $77 per ounce for the first time and gold and platinum also setting record highs. Silver was up around 155% year to date based on Friday afternoon’s price and gold was up about 70%.

GDP acceleration

The government’s long-delayed initial estimate of third-quarter U.S. economic growth showed a much bigger gain than most economists had forecast. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the July-through-September period versus the consensus forecast for 3.2%. The result follows a 3.8% GDP growth rate in this year’s second quarter and a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter.

U.S vs. the world

Although the U.S. stock market was on pace for a solid overall gain in 2025, a key U.S. benchmark was lagging behind the year-to-date performance of two international indexes. At Friday’s close,  the S&P 500’s total return for the year was more than 19% versus returns of nearly 32% and 34%, respectively, for an ex-U.S. developed-markets index and an emerging-markets index.

2026 rate outlook

After three interest rate cuts in 2025, bond market trading continued to support prospects for two further reductions in 2026. As of Friday’s market close, prices in rate futures markets implied a roughly 74% probability that the Fed would implement at least two quarter-point cuts over the course of the year, according to CME FedWatch. The probability of just a single cut was 21%, with a 5% probability for no cut.

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