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John Hancock: Weekly Market Recap Week Ended March 13

March 17, 2026

Oil’s wild ride

Conflict in the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fueled oil market volatility for a second week, with U.S. crude futures spiking to $119 per barrel on Monday and then briefly slipping below $77 the next day. On Friday afternoon, oil was trading around $98, up from a recent low of around $65 on February 27.

 

Below peak levels

The three-week string of declines for the S&P 500 left the index nearly 5% below its record high reached on January 27 and almost 3% lower on a year-to-date basis. The NASDAQ was nearly 8% below its October 29, 2025, record and down almost 5% year to date.

 

GDP setback

The U.S. economy expanded at a far slower pace in late 2025 than an initial estimate had indicated. Friday’s revision showed that GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter. The figure was down from the 1.4% estimate released in February and well below the 4.4% rate recorded in last year’s third quarter.

 

Fed ahead

Bond market trading ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting continued to support expectations of a policy pause in the wake of recent rate cuts. Friday’s trading in rate futures markets implied a 99% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, March 18, according to CME FedWatch. At its most recent meeting in January, the Fed held steady after approving rate cuts at its three previous meetings.

 

Read Full Article: https://www.jhinvestments.com/weekly-market-recap#market-moving-news

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