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John Hancock: Weekly Market Recap Week Ended September 19

September 23, 2025

Rate reduction

On an 11-1 vote, U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers approved a quarter-point interest rate cut—the first reduction since late 2024. The move aligned with market expectations, which on Friday afternoon pointed to the prospect of two further quarter-point cuts in October and December. Prices in rate futures markets implied a 92% probability that the Fed would cut twice by year end, according to CME FedWatch.

 

Retail resilience

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in August relative to the previous month, despite recent labor market weakness and persistent inflationary pressures. The latest monthly sales gain exceeded economists’ consensus forecast and followed a similar increase in July.

 

Mortgage rates slip

The effects of the Fed’s rate cut continued to ripple through the U.S. housing market, as the average 30-year U.S. fixed-rate mortgage rate fell for the fourth week in a row. The average for the weekly period ended Thursday was 6.26%, down from 6.35% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. As recently as January 2025, the average was as high as 7.04%.

 

PCE inflation ahead

A report due to be released on Friday will show whether a recent trend of modestly rising inflation extended into August. The most recent release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index showed that core PCE inflation rose in July at an annual rate of 2.9%, the highest level in five months.

 

SOURCE: https://www.jhinvestments.com/weekly-market-recap#market-moving-news

 

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