LPL: Bull Markets That Last Four Years Typically Last Five
Can the Bull Market Keep Going? History Offers Some Encouragement
The current bull market has reached an important milestone, celebrating its fourth anniversary on October 12, 2026. Despite economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, higher interest rates, and geopolitical challenges, U.S. stocks have continued to deliver strong returns.
Since the market bottomed in October 2022, the S&P 500 has gained approximately 118%, including a 19.2% increase over the past year.
With stocks trading near record highs, investors are wondering whether the rally still has room to grow.
What History Tells Us About Bull Markets
According to LPL Research, history suggests that bull markets reaching their fourth anniversary often continue into a fifth year.
Of the six previous S&P 500 bull markets that lasted at least four years, five went on to complete a fifth year. Among those that did, the average fifth-year gain was 20.7%.
Some periods produced particularly impressive returns. The bull market that began in 1982 gained 36.6% during its fifth year, while the 1990 bull market advanced 24.4%.
Of course, historical performance doesn’t guarantee similar results, and the relatively small number of examples makes predictions difficult.
What’s Supporting the Current Rally?
Several factors have helped sustain the market’s momentum.
Corporate earnings: Strong company profits continue to provide support for stock valuations and investor confidence.
Artificial intelligence investment: Spending on AI infrastructure remains a significant growth driver, particularly in semiconductors, data centers, technology equipment, and power infrastructure.
Economic resilience: Consumer spending has remained relatively steady, helping reduce immediate concerns about a recession.
Interest rates: A more favorable interest-rate environment could provide additional support to stocks, particularly if inflation continues to ease.
What Could Bring the Bull Market to an End?
Bull markets don’t necessarily end simply because they’ve lasted several years. Historically, major economic disruptions, recessions, financial crises, or restrictive monetary policies have been more common triggers.
Although the current economic outlook remains relatively encouraging, risks haven’t disappeared. Elevated market valuations, geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy costs, and questions surrounding the long-term returns on AI investments could create volatility.
Looking Ahead
The historical record offers reasons for optimism as the market enters its fifth year. Continued earnings growth, economic stability, and technology investment could help extend the rally into 2027.
However, investors should avoid assuming that past market patterns will repeat.
Maintaining a diversified portfolio, monitoring economic conditions, and staying focused on long-term investment objectives remain important regardless of how long the current bull market continues.