Calamos Investments: January 2019 Economic Outlook
February 12, 2019
Following a painful and broad fourth quarter selloff, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of 2019 as optimism has grown about Fed accommodation, earnings, China stimulus and an eventual trade dispute resolution. However, investors should be prepared for choppy markets, especially through the first half of the year. We believe:
- Although there will be softening in U.S. economic data, the U.S. is positioned for continued slow expansion. A recession in 2019 is unlikely.
- The global economy will grow tepidly through these next months, with increased potential for acceleration in the second half of the year.
- Volatility will remain elevated, due to softening global economic data, and elevated political, geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainties. Company specific news is also likely to roil the markets.
- The pace of earnings growth will slow from recent peaks, but equities and equity-sensitive securities—including convertible issues and high yield bonds—offer additional upside for the active manager.
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Source: https://www.calamos.com/-/media/documents/market-insights/2019/01/OUTLKCOM_January_2019.pdf