John Hancock: Weekly Market Recap Week Ended November 25th

Holiday shopping outlook

The short-term outlook for U.S. retail sales was mixed as of Black Friday, the unofficial start of the U.S. holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation expected holiday sales during November and December to rise between 6% to 8% from last year. However, those figures would indicate a decline when factoring in the effect of inflation.

Fed policy shift?

Wednesday’s release of minutes from the most recent U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting showed that most Fed officials were inclined to slow the pace of interest-rate increases. A “substantial majority” believed that a slowdown “would likely soon be appropriate,” according to the minutes from the Fed’s early November meeting. In each of the past four meetings, officials have approved rate hikes of three-quarters of a percentage point.

Dollar stabilizes

The U.S. dollar was little changed overall for the week versus a basket of major foreign currencies, interrupting a recent weakening of the greenback. As of Friday, the dollar had declined more than 5% from a recent high on November 3. The dollar has been weakened by indications that that U.S. Federal Reserve could slow the pace of interest-rate increases.

Jobs ahead

A monthly U.S. labor market update due out on Friday will show whether the strong—but moderating—jobs growth recorded in recent months extended into November. In October, the economy generated a better-than-expected 261,000 new jobs—down from 315,000 in September—while the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%.

Source: https://wmr.jhinvestments.com/