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LPL: A Silver Lining

November 1, 2018

It’s been a rocky ride so far in October, but there is a silver lining. “Incredibly, the S&P 500 during a midterm year has never finished lower if you bought the October low and held till the end of the year,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

Of course, no one can pick a market low with any consistency, but with October about to end, it is safe to assume the low happened last week or will happen over the next few days.

As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the past 18 midterm years saw the S&P 500 Index gain from the October lowest close until the end of the year every single time—up 10.6% on average. Given the average year since 1950 is up 7.4% on average from the October lows, midterm years can see even more strength to end the year.

Since World War II the S&P 500 Index Has Never Been Lower Off the October Lows During a Midterm Year

For more thoughts on the recent sell-off and what could happen the rest of 2018, be on the lookout for our latest Weekly Market Commentary.

 

Source: https://lplresearch.com/2018/10/29/a-silver-lining/

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RISK: There are risks involved with investing, including loss of principal. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risks as well. Diversification may not protect against market risk. There is no assurance the goals of the strategies discussed will be met. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from difference in generally accepted accounting in principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. These and other risks are described more fully in the fund’s prospectus. CREDIT RISK: The issuer of a fixed income security may not be able to make interest and principal payments when due. The lower the credit rating of a security, the greater the risk of default on its obligation.

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Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.